I know I have been a bit rubbish with blogs recently, but
I’m massively behind with the Discovering Statistics Using SPSS update, and
these things fall by the wayside. Also, I can so rarely find anything remotely
interesting to say, let alone blog about. If it were a blog about music then I
could write all day. Anyway …
So, while writing the DSUS update I was unwell for a couple
of months. It turned out to (probably) be stress related (updating a book
involves a lot of long days, late nights, and pressure). Unlike women who
sensibly go to the doctor when they feel ill, men do not. However, I did
eventually do the un-manly thing and go to my doctor. She prescribed some
pills. In one of my other blogs I talked about key statistical skills that we
should try to teach undergrads, and as I read the instructions of these pills
it occurred to me that this is a good example of where the world would be a
better place if people left university understanding statistics a bit better,
and providing useful statistical information, therefore became the norm.
Like a diligent patient, I read the instruction leaflet with
the pills. Like most instruction leaflets with pills they had an un-amusing
list of possible side effects. These side effects were helpfully listed as common, uncommon and rare. Common
ones included headache, stomache aches and feeling sick (Ok, I can handle
that), uncommon ones were dizziness, liver disease which might make my eyes
yellow, rash, sleepiness or trouble sleeping (but not both). The rare ones
included liver failure resulting in brain damage, bleeding at the lips, eyes,
mouth, nose and genitals and development of breasts in men.
Excuse me? Did it say ‘development of breasts in men’?
Yes it did.
Here’s a photo to prove it.
 |
| Side effects |
I’ll admit that I don’t know much about human anatomy, but
based on the little I do know, it seems intuitive that my immune system, if
reacting badly to something like a drug, might overload my liver and make it explode,
or give me kidney failure. I also know that feeling sick and having flu-like
symptoms is part and parcel of your immune system kicking into action. But why on
earth would my body respond to a nasty drug by sprouting breasts? Perhaps because
having them would make me more likely to visit my doctor.
Anyway, back to the tenuous link to stats. Whenever I read this
sort of thing (which fortunately isn’t often) I usually feel that I’d rather
put up with whatever it is that’s bothering me than run the risk of, for
example, bleeding from my penis or getting brain damage. I might feel differently if I had enough information to assess the risk. What do they mean by
’uncommon’ or ‘rare’: 1/100, 1/1,000, 1/billion? Wouldn’t it be nice if we
could have a bit more information, maybe even an odds ratio – that way I could
know, for example, that if I take the pill I’d be 1.2 times more likely to grow
breasts than if I don’t. That way we could better assess the likelihood of
these adverse events, which if you’re as neurotic as me, would be very helpful.
The campaign for more stats on drug instruction leaflets
starts here.
Anyway, after all that I took the pill, went to sleep and dreamt of the
lovely new breasts that I’d have in the morning …
